Research

No Rerating With Vans Down By The River - 08/24/25

We appreciate all the work that VF Corp management has put into turning around the business and believe it will ultimately pay off longer-term with outsized shareholder returns. But the top-line of the business is a major concern right now as doesn’t seem like we can expect an inflection in Vans anytime soon and The North Face is up against a difficult winter comparison from last year. The main driver of multiple expansion will likely always remain underlying growth in the business.

It is easy to see why this stock is a favorite for BOTE investors as the FY28 financial opportunity is easy to sketch out. The problem is the phase two Reinvest story going forward requires growth and management has indicated they will invest a portion of cost savings into that growth. “Product creation” as a value driver is both ubiquitous and impossible to forecast. Organization improvements should lead to better product, but most investors are unlikely to take the necessary leap of faith while current revenue trends remain challenged. In this regard Vans is the most critical brand to stabilize, and we took a deep look into the current state of that business in this note.